• Heavy week for AU/US markets with US CPI & AU Employment headlining, post-Trump winning.
• CPI expected @ 2.4% y/y (same), AU employment with +25.2k change, and 4.1% unemployment.
• Expecting AU to range this week with a bearish bias, hovering between 0.6500 & 0.6675.
Market Snapshot (9:00 am AEST) • Seems like AUD/USD reacted negatively to Trump’s win last week, seeing the Aussie fall close to 1c to current levels.
• AU employment can potentially move the needle higher this week, with a positive change in jobs expected and no change in the unemployment rate, which is positive for the overall pair.
• A Trump win in Congress and the White House means their policies are likely to be implemented, which supports the USD by stimulating further growth in the US and attracting foreign investment but further pushing the AUD lower.
• The US CPI, expected to remain the same at 2.4%, is still positive for the USD, further reinforcing the bearish sentiment this week, as rate cuts are still on the agenda.
• RBA market pricing still suggests the first rate cut will occur on or around May 2025.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 11th November 2024 – Fri 15th November 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | All Day | Bank Holiday | US | N/A | N/A |
| Wed | 11:30am | Wage Price Index q/q | AU | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Thur | 12:30am | CPI y/y | US | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 10:00am | RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | AU | N/A | N/A | |
| 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 25.2K | 64.1K | |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 4.1% | 4.1% | ||
| Fri | 12:30am | PPI m/m | US | N/A | 0.0% |
| Unemployment Claims | US | N/A | 221K | ||
| 7:00am | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A | |
| Sat | 12:30am | Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.4% |
Source: forexfactory.com