WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• AU GDP & US Non-Farm Payroll – the key headliners this week.
• AU GDP @ 0.5% (+0.2%), US unemployment rate @ 4% & employment change @ +156K.
• AUDUSD is expected to continue its fall, pivoting between 0.6133 to 0.6332.

• AUD is still not looking great as we sit close to the 62c handle.

• US tariffs continue to weigh down on the AUD pair, intensifying the global trade war with talks of the US imposing even higher tariffs on China.

• We still expect AUD weakness this week, potentially breaking through the 62c barrier into 61c.

• There may be a shine of positivity for the AUD based on US data but unlikely, with Non-Farm Payrolls on Saturday morning expected to provide USD strength.

• Average earnings expect @ 0.3%, unemployment rate same @ 4% and employment change @+156K, all more positive for the USD than negative.

• AU GDP is also expected to release, although unlikely to have a material impact on the pair, coming in at 0.5% (+0.2%).

Economic Calendar: Mon 3rd March 2025 – Fri 7th March 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US)
Day Time (AEDT) Event Country Forecast Previous
Tues 2:00am ISM Manufacturing PMI US 50.6 50.9
Wed 11:30am GDP q/q AU 0.5% 0.3%
Thur 12:15am ADP Non-Farm Employment Change US 144K 183K
  2:00am ISM Services PMI US 53.0 52.8
Fri 12:30am Unemployment Claims US 236K 242K
Sat 12:30am Average Hourly Earnings m/m US 0.3% 0.5%
    Non-Farm Employment Change US 156K 143K
    Unemployment Rate US 4.0% 4.0%
  4:30am Fed Chair Powell Speaks US N/A N/A

Source: forexfactory.com

CurrenCWEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK