• AU GDP & US Non-Farm Payroll – the key headliners this week.
• AU GDP @ 0.5% (+0.2%), US unemployment rate @ 4% & employment change @ +156K.
• AUDUSD is expected to continue its fall, pivoting between 0.6133 to 0.6332.
• AUD is still not looking great as we sit close to the 62c handle.
• US tariffs continue to weigh down on the AUD pair, intensifying the global trade war with talks of the US imposing even higher tariffs on China.
• We still expect AUD weakness this week, potentially breaking through the 62c barrier into 61c.
• There may be a shine of positivity for the AUD based on US data but unlikely, with Non-Farm Payrolls on Saturday morning expected to provide USD strength.
• Average earnings expect @ 0.3%, unemployment rate same @ 4% and employment change @+156K, all more positive for the USD than negative.
• AU GDP is also expected to release, although unlikely to have a material impact on the pair, coming in at 0.5% (+0.2%).
Economic Calendar: Mon 3rd March 2025 – Fri 7th March 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
Tues | 2:00am | ISM Manufacturing PMI | US | 50.6 | 50.9 |
Wed | 11:30am | GDP q/q | AU | 0.5% | 0.3% |
Thur | 12:15am | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 144K | 183K |
2:00am | ISM Services PMI | US | 53.0 | 52.8 | |
Fri | 12:30am | Unemployment Claims | US | 236K | 242K |
Sat | 12:30am | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.5% |
Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 156K | 143K | ||
Unemployment Rate | US | 4.0% | 4.0% | ||
4:30am | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A |
Source: forexfactory.com