• High impact with RBA Cash rate & US Non-farm payroll as this week’s key headliners.
• RBA cash same @ 4.1% and US NFP employment change +139K, unemployment rate 4.1%.
• AUDUSD is expected to continue consolidating (bearish bias), pivoting between 0.6254 – 0.6324.
• AUD trading this week with bearish bias due to high-impact events, notably the RBA cash rate decision and US NFP.
• If the currency pair’s data is negative, we could see AUD trading near 0.6250, possibly lower.
• The RBA decision could be a significant weight on the AUDUSD this week, if the overall message is dovish and suggests a rate cut sooner rather than later.
• Markets are pricing no cuts this time, leaving the cash rate @ 4.10%.
• US NFP suggests a +139K uplift in employment with the unemployment rate on hold @ 4.1%, which overall is +ve for US, -ve for AUD.
• Trump’s tariffs continue to be a head weight in the markets, as US relationships with other countries are starting to impact the overall currency pairs.
• Will we see some respite from the AUD data?
| Economic Calendar: Mon 31st March 2025 – Fri 4th April 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 2:30pm | Cash Rate / RBA Statement | AU | 4.10% | 4.10% |
| Wed | 1:00am | ISM Manufacturing PMI | US | 49.6 | 50.3 |
| JOLTS Job Openings | US | 7.73M | 7.74M | ||
| 11:15pm | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 118K | 77K | |
| Thur | 11:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 227K | 224K |
| Fri | 1:00am | ISM Services PMI | US | 53.0 | 53.5 |
| 11:30pm | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 139K | 151K | ||
| Unemployment Rate | US | 4.1% | 4.1% | ||
| Sat | 2:25am | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A |
Source: forexfactory.com