AUD/USD
AUD/USD fell to 0.6764, its lowest level in more than two-years, since June 2020. AUD/USD will continue to trade heavy while concerns over a global economic slowdown intensify, and the USD continues to strengthen. Reflecting the dominance of the concerns over slowing global economic growth, global bond yields have declined from their mid-June 2022 highs despite rising global inflation. Inflation has officially yet to peak. However, the market is thinking that slower global economic growth is now more of a concern that inflation, and the economic slowdown will help lower inflation from its highs. The Australian 10-year bond yield has declined some 70bpts since its mid-June peak of 4.25%, while the U.S. 10-year bond yield has declined around 60bp from its mid-June peak of 3.49%. The narrowing in the Australia-U.S. ten-year bond spread has helped lower the valuation of AUD/USD, even though the main factor driving AUD/USD lower is slowing global economic growth and a strengthening USD. The risk is AUD/USD continues to depreciate and declines to 0.6570 over coming weeks. Next week’s main Australian domestic event highlight is the RBA’s board meeting (Tuesday). The RBA is almost certainly going to lift interest rates again because of high inflation, despite slowing global economic growth. But this will not be enough to change the dominate downward pressure on AUD/USD. The current market pricing for the 5 July board meeting is 40bpts (based on the OIS contract specifications of using the RBA’s overnight rate, currently 0.81%, and not the RBA’s official cash rate target of 0.85%). This implies an 80% chance of a 50bpts interest rate rise, or a 160% chance of a 25bpt rate rise.
On Monday, the Melbourne Institute of monthly inflation is due. A fresh reading for May comes after April’s 4.8% (YoY) rise. ANZ job ads are also due Monday, as is the very interest rate sensitive home loan data, which is like show home loans declined again in May, adding to last month’s 6.4% decline. On Tuesday, apart from the RBA board meeting, the June PMI data is also released. The current composite reading is 52.6 and is edging closer to the key benchmark rate of 50, separating a reading of expansion from contraction in sections of the economy. An unexpected lift in China’s June PMI’s into expansionary territory (above 50.0) last Thursday was not enough to give AUD/USD a convincing lift. The strengthening USD is too dominate. On Thursday, the Australian May international trade balance is due. Last month exports rose 1.0% while imports fell 1.0%. Closed parts of China’s economy, including the east coast ports, during the month of May could impact Australia’s international trade data. U.S. economic data next week includes the final estimate of May durable goods (Monday). The data is likely to be affected by inflation, meaning we could get a rise in durable goods orders even if volumes (which are recorded in the GDP data) fall. The final estimate of the U.S. June PMI is also due. On Wednesday, the minutes of the FOMC’s June 15 meeting are released, where the Fed lifted rates 75bpt. The minutes will detail the debate within the FOMC over the outlook for the economy. The U.S. international trade balance is also due on Thursday, as is the ADP employment report, ahead of Friday’s June non-farm payrolls data. A 250k rise in non-farm employment (down from 390k the previous month) is expected to accompany a stable 3.6% unemployment rate, with average hourly earnings growth at 5.1% (YoY). A strong U.S.
labour market report would give the USD another lift.
AUD/EUR
AUD/EUR had a volatile week, lifting as high as 0.6637, and moving as low as 0.6495. However, not unexpectedly, AUD/EUR closed the week lower as concerns over slowing global economic growth intensified. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average of 0.6508 may generate some near-term technical support. But it appears only a matter of time that AUD/EUR declines below that level as slowing global growth concerns persist. There is a possibility that AUD/EUR remains between the 100-day moving average (0.6665) and the 200-day moving average (0.6508) if we get some optimism return to the global economic outlook. Both AUD/USD and EUR/USD remain under downward pressure as the USD continues to strengthen. EUR/USD endured a few major dips during last week, most notably: (1) below 1.0450, after comments by ECB President Christine Lagarde at the ECB’s Central Banking forum in Sintra, Portugal. Lagarde stated that the ECB will most-likely (only) raise interest rates 25bpts at this month’s 21 July ECB meeting. Market participants had been considering the possibility of a 50bpt rate rise at the July meeting; and (2) a dip to 1.0366 after a lower-than-expected Eurozone June core CPI. At 3.7% (YoY), core CPI inflation eased from last month’s 3.8%. The risk is EUR/USD further declines to the mid-June low of 1.0359, and also the mid-May low of 1.0350. In the Eurozone, this week’s economic data includes the Sentix investor confidence survey for July, as well as the Eurozone May PPI data, both released on Monday. Current producer price inflation rates in the Eurozone remain incredibly high at 37.2%. Although energy prices have eased since their recent peak in
early June, energy prices were still rising in May. On Tuesday, the final estimate of the Eurozone June PMI is due. An outcome of 51.9 in the composite index is expected. On Wednesday, the Eurozone May retail sales data is due. In April, retail activity fell 1.3% in the month. However, annual retail sales growth is still holding reasonably well at 3.9% (YoY). On Friday, the ECB will publish an account of their June policy meeting. The strength of the USD this week will be instrumental in guiding both EUR/USD and AUD/USD.