AUD/USD
AUD/USD closed the week marginally higher at 0.7076, albeit at the lower-end of its six-month range. USD strength, and growing concerns about the global economy are the main factors weighing on AUD/USD. Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds interest rate by 0.5% to 1.0%, and indicated that two further 0.5% interest rate rises were most likely at the next two Fed meetings. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, added that the Fed would also move interest rates above their “neutral rate”, and into restrictive territory if necessary to slow U.S. inflation pressures. U.S. 10-year bond yields further lifted late last week, signalling a strong U.S. economic outlook, providing the USD with further impetus. The strength of the U.S. labour market was also on display late last week. The April U.S. non-farms payroll numbers showed stronger-than-expected U.S. monthly job growth of 428k, and a steady unemployment rate at 3.6%. Also weighing on AUD/USD, the price of Australia’s largest commodity export, iron ore has fallen to its lowest level since late February. China’s zero-covid policy is dampening the current demand for iron ore despite Chinese President Xi announcing a large boost to infrastructure spending. Chinese April PMI’s released last week, all moved deeper into negative territory as China’s lockdowns dramatically lowed China’s economic activity. China’s April trade data is due on Monday. Export growth is forecast to slow from 14.7% (YoY) to 2.5% (YoY), while China’s imports are forecast to be -3.0% (YoY) from -0.1% (YoY) the previous month. The international trade data is set to further confirm the slowdown in the
world’s second largest economy, and challenge commodity price levels. There is no major economic data due in Australia this coming week. The Australian commercial banks release surveys on household spending intentions (Tuesday), business confidence (Tuesday), and consumer confidence (Wednesday). There is also the consumer inflation expectations survey (Thursday). The RBA Deputy governor Michele Bullock participates on a panel at the Regulators 2022 FINSIA conference. However, she is not expected to say anything about monetary policy. AUD/USD will continue to remain heavy while the USD strengthens, and global economic activity slows. This week, AUD/USD risk falling to test 0.6968, its lowest level since July 2020.
AUD/GBP and AUD/EUR
USD strength, and to a lesser extent, global equity market performance, will be the major influence on EUR, AUD, and AUD/EUR this coming week. The USD has lifted to its highest level since 2002, and shows no sign of slowing down, as the Fed lifts interest rates to dampen inflationary pressures. U.S. economic momentum continues to thrive. The mix of higher U.S. interest rates and risk aversion is generating large global demand for the USD. Pockets of stagflation (high inflation and slow economic growth) are emerging in parts of the world. Where there is stagflation, there is usually depreciation on that country’s currency. The Bank of England (BoE) flagged stagflation risk as part of their updated economic forecasts on May 5. At the same time as forecasting sharply slower U.K. GDP growth over the next year to 0.0% by Q2 2023, the BoE also forecast CPI inflation to lift from its current annual rate of 7.0% to 10.0% in Q4 of this year. Inflation is forecast to fall next year, although not decline to the 2.0% target range for around two-years. A major reason for the stagflation in the U.K. is the combination of high global energy prices, and the fact that the U.K. has been a net importer of energy since 2004. Consequently, high energy prices are lowering real incomes for U.K. households and real profits for businesses. GBP/USD subsequently remains under downward pressure, at a near two-year low. AUD/GBP on the other hand, is in the upper-range of a three-and-a-half-year high. Australia is a net energy exporter, and the RBA’s updated economic forecasts published in their quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy last week showed CPI inflation peaking at 6.0% this year, before easing back to 3.0% in mid-2024. Australia’s GDP growth is forecast to average 4.5% this year, before easing slightly to 2.75%
next year. Australia’s GDP growth is stronger, and inflation is lower than in the U.K. Adding upward pressure to AUD/GBP, Australia runs a current account surplus equal to 3.6% of GDP, while the UK runs a current account deficit equal to 2.6% of GDP. The Eurozone is also a net energy importer, and the European Central Bank will release their updated economic forecasts at their upcoming June 9 meeting. Consensus currently has Eurozone GDP growth easing from 3.2% this year to 2.1% next year, and for Eurozone CPI inflation to lift to 6.7% before easing to 3.0% in 2003 and 2.2% in 2024. We are likely to see an upward revision to near-term CPI inflation, and a downward revision to next-year’s GDP growth because of the impact of the war in Ukraine and sustained high energy prices. The ECB is not currently forecasting stagflation, but the updated economic forecasts are likely to reflect a tilt towards that direction, and keep AUD/EUR well-supported. The OIS interest rate market is currently pricing a 24% chance of a 10 bpts rate rise by the ECB at the June 9 meeting, and for the ECB to deliver a series of interest rate rises, lifting their current benchmark deposit interest rate from -0.50% to +0.25% by the ECB’s mid-December meeting. AUD/EUR is likely to continue to remain well-supported for now. Technical support exists at 0.6642.